Bear's Blog

Regional conflicts have spiraled into wars that endanger the whole world because of nuclear weapons. In 1994 Ukraine surrendered the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal to Russia. In exchange Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. Breaking that treaty, Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. If Ukraine loses the war, the message is clear: might makes right, and nuclear arms guarantee survival. What can we do to change this trajectory?*

Nine countries possess nuclear weapons; Russia, USA, China, France, the U.K., India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. Keeping Iran from developing that capacity has been a fixation of the world, believing they would actually USE it as a weapon versus a deterrent. Some of the countries currently in the nuclear club are bad actors too. This race to gain the means to potentially end life on Earth is devastating - literally. At its heart lies humanity’s brutal instinct to use force to achieve its goals. Rising above our lower natures to create something different is critical.

Putin has threatened nuclear force more than once in this war. Russia has incurred significant losses - 1.2 million casualties and massive amounts of equipment and money. Yet even with a diminished capacity to expand, Putin’s imperialistic aims remain unchanged. For him everything is on the table - mass executions, deliberate strikes on civilian infrastructure, wiping out cities, ecological destruction, and abducting thousands of Ukrainian children. Human rights abuses have compelled the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for Putin (and Maria Lvova-Belova) for war crimes.

In the fight for their land, their lives, and their liberty, Ukrainians have been supported by Europe (and until recently the US) with just enough resources to resist - but not win - the war. Against all odds they have become a nimble, sophisticated fighting force. It’s been a windfall for the US military industrial complex, supplying old stockpiles of weapons to Ukraine and manufacturing new ones. Allies have gotten invaluable insights and innovations into modern warfare from Ukraine, which has suffered only half as many casualties as Russia! But while they spend the lives of their people - soldiers and citizens - the US has contributed just 5% of its military budget.

Supporting Russia's aggression in Europe are many of the other nuclear powers - China, India, and North Korea (they have even sent soldiers to fight.) Iran has provided thousands of drones (Russia deployed 38,000 drones in 2025 alone.) Poland intercepted some that entered their airspace, which triggered NATO's Article 4. This breach underscores the threat to European security.

Although not a member yet (!) Ukraine has contributed troops to UN and NATO peacekeeping missions over the years. They’ve supported U.S.-led operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. While this conflict has prompted Finland and Sweden to join NATO, the US isn’t a reliable member anymore (and is even threatening its NATO allies.) 

Pre-World War II history demonstrated that unpunished aggression tends to expand. If borders can be changed by force in Europe, the precedent will not remain confined there. Putin, previously considered a mortal enemy of the U.S., helped elect a lapdog President who is trying to “end” the war in Russia’s favor. Ukraine’s call for a peacekeeping force against further aggression are being denied. The guarantees in the1994 Budapest Memorandum were violated, and now even the pretense of containment is rejected. The United States has apparently abandoned the values of the international order it once built. 

One wonders what would be happening now if Ukraine hadn’t, in good faith, given up their nuclear arsenal. Today it’s not just about one country. It’s a strategic contest whose outcome will influence global calculations. If Russia’s invasion fails, deterrence will be strengthened across multiple conflicts.¹ If their demands are met, it opens the door to rule by force. Physical force can ultimately be overcome by power* - people power! We must continue to feed the possibility of another way, through our thoughts, actions, intent, and energy. To evolve beyond this moment, and carry all of humanity with us.

Slava Ukraine! And an end to all wars!

Peace, love and healing -

Bear

*Here’s more about the potent power of consciousness https://www.bearmckay.com/blog/power-vs-force 

¹Thanks to Andy J. Semotiuk Forbes's article “Russia-Ukraine War: 1.2 Million Russian Casualties, No U.S. Troops”